Draftkings & Fanduel Expert Survey for Week 12

Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!

NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 12

Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:

Analyst	Rank 1	Rank 2	Rank 3
Notorious		(FD) / (DK)
squirrelpatrol
Krayton		(FD) / (DK)
ebeimfohr		(FD) / (DK)
Stevietpfl
eys819		(FD) / (DK)
Bobby Gomes

Rank your three favorite players for large-field tournaments, in order, who are below 10% pOWN%:

Analyst	Rank 1	Rank 2	Rank 3
Notorious
squirrelpatrol
Krayton	Josh Jacobs
ebeimfohr
Stevietpfl
eys819
Bobby Gomes

Who is your favorite salary relief option this week?

Notorious: (FD) / (DK)
squirrelpatrol:
Krayton: (FD) / (DK)
ebeimfohr: (FD) / (DK)
Stevietpfl: (FD) / (DK) – (large-field GPPs)
eys819:
Bobby Gomes:

What’s the best position to save salary on?

Notorious: RB
squirrelpatrol: RB
Krayton: RB
ebeimfohr: RB
Stevietpfl: RB
eys819: RB
Bobby Gomes: TE

Who is your favorite high-salary D/ST to use this week?

Notorious: TEN
squirrelpatrol: NE
Krayton: PIT
ebeimfohr: CLE
Stevietpfl: PIT
eys819: PIT
Bobby Gomes: CLE

Who is your favorite low-salary D/ST to use this week?

Notorious: HOU
squirrelpatrol: TB
Krayton: HOU (FD) / KC (DK)
ebeimfohr: KC
Stevietpfl: DEN (FD) / KC (DK)
eys819: DEN (FD) / KC (DK)
Bobby Gomes: HOU

What player do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Bills passing attack
squirrelpatrol:
Krayton: Josh Jacobs
ebeimfohr:
Stevietpfl:
eys819:
Bobby Gomes: &

What player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Josh Jacobs
squirrelpatrol:
Krayton:
ebeimfohr:
Stevietpfl:
eys819:
Bobby Gomes:

What stack will you be most underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: +
squirrelpatrol: +
Krayton: +
ebeimfohr: +
Stevietpfl: +
eys819: +
Bobby Gomes: +

What team will you target players from the most compared to the field?

Notorious: BUF
squirrelpatrol: BUF
Krayton: HOU
ebeimfohr: ATL
Stevietpfl: IND
eys819: IND
Bobby Gomes: HOU

What team will you target players from the least compared to the field?

Notorious: LAR
squirrelpatrol: JAx
Krayton: KC
ebeimfohr: JAX
Stevietpfl: KC
eys819: KC
Bobby Gomes: LAR

What game will exceed its implied total by the most points this week?

Notorious: BUF/PHI
squirrelpatrol: TB/IND
Krayton: JAX/HOU
ebeimfohr: ATL/NO
Stevietpfl: TB/IND
eys819: TB/IND
Bobby Gomes: TB/IND

What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?

Notorious: + and/or – I know it was only against the Jets, but it was good to see the Bills dominate in a game that they were supposed to. The advanced metrics (especially EPA and success rate) have loved this team all season, but they have lost in some strange ways. Anyway, this is a roundabout way of saying I like their chances against the Eagles. And the matchup sets up extremely well for the passing game. On the season, Philadelphia ranks 1st in fantasy points allowed to running backs, while allowing the 4th most to quarterbacks, the most to wide receivers, and the 4th most to tight ends. If the Bills are going to win this game, it will be thanks to Allen and the passing attack.

squirrelpatrol: + – This is a close call between the Colts and Bills, but for the price, I’ll have some interest in using the Colts stack with Minshew and Pittman and adding higher-cost pieces from other games along with it. Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd-most passing yards per game in the NFL, and after some tougher passing game matchups against Cleveland, Carolina, and New Orleans, this Colts passing game is both cheap and high-upside.

Krayton: + and/or – Stroud had this matchup back on September 24th, and he had 280 yards and 2 TDs with over 20 fantasy points. Since then, he has put up great numbers along with Dell and Collins. Dell had 5 receptions for 145 yards in a TD in this matchup, and the Jags secondary will have a tough time stopping this offense, which continues to put up big numbers week after week. On the Jags side, I like getting to , , , and . They have the 2nd-highest total on the slate, and I will be looking to stack this game in a variety of ways.

ebeimfohr: + – I’ve been a noted Falcons truther, and it’s clearly been hit or miss this year. But Ridder is back at QB, and he’s shown upside of nearly 30 fantasy points for less than $5,000 this week. The game will be played in a dome, and the Saints have historically been a tougher matchup for run games. That should be even more pronounced this week with the Saints not having Marshon Lattimore in their secondary. That should allow to feast on lesser corners at just $5,000 on DK, and this stack allows us to save a ton of money to afford the studs from other games around it in our lineups.

Stevietpfl: + + – is projected to be one of the highest-owned running backs, and while I like him, I think the passing game is a way to get different in this game. Tampa is allowing the 2nd-most passing yards per game. They rank 20th in DOVA against the pass, but they’re 3rd in DVOA against the run. Pittman has at least 8 targets in 4 of his last 5 games, and 3 of those games he has at least 12 targets. With Evans playing on the outside for most of his snaps, he draws the best matchup of the Tampa receivers. Evans has scored a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 games. This game has a lot of upside, and best of all, it’s being played inside on the fast track.

eys819: + + – Stevie already wrote up my favorite correlation, so rather than be redundant, I will give another one of my favorites. Hurts has as much upside as any QB on the slate thanks to his rushing upside, but his passing upside is often underrated. Pivoting from to Smith can gain you leverage on the field and save a little salary. Smith has plenty of upside with out again. The Bills defense is dealing with multiple injuries, including top remaining CB Dane Jackson being ruled out with a concussion. Tre’Davious White, Kaiir Elam, DaQuan Jones, and Matt Milano all remain on IR. Running it back with is more cost effective than and fills the TE position. Kincaid has had a massive role since went to IR, with at least 6 targets in each of the last 5 games.

Bobby Gomes: + and/or + – Stroud shredded the Jaguars’ weak secondary in Week 3, and it has been downhill for them ever since. Both QBs in this game are firmly in play and so are the pass catchers (including and ) and run games. This is a game we can stack fully with it having the 2nd-highest total on the slate.

Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?

Notorious: – While I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get steamed up a bit before Sunday, his pOWN% is currently sitting at 10% on DraftKings and 8% on FanDuel. He has struggled a bit over the last 2 games, but I blame that on matchups against the Niners and Titans. Prior to that, he had at least 23 touches in 4 of his previous 5 games. This week, he draws a better matchup against the Texans, who are 12th in DVOA against the run and 16th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Jaguars were blown out by Houston in their first meeting this season, and Etienne was still able to turn 23 touches into 138 yards from scrimmage.

squirrelpatrol: – With likely to play after getting hurt last week, Nacua will likely see his ownership drop, but I’ll still have some interest at the lower ownership. The Rams will be playing as road favorites inside a dome, and ownership is more likely to fall on the side of the Cardinals. With , , and all back, this offense could surprise some people, and I think the best combination of price, pOWN%, and upside belongs to Nacua.

Krayton: – Right now, we have Mixon projected for single-digit ownership. And with out, Mixon should have the opportunity to carry the offensive load for the Bengals. Mixon has actually scored a TD in each of the last 4 games, and the Steelers are currently allowing the 6th-most rushing yards per game (107). The upside is there for Mixon, and at single-digit ownership, he is a guy that I will be looking to target in tournaments.

ebeimfohr: – On the opposite side of my Falcons stack, we have a lot of potential options to stack up this game. The Falcons defense has been beat up with injuries, and this rookie WR is going to step into a big role with placed on IR. He scored a TD last game in his first extended action, and he’s just $3.2k on DraftKings.

Stevietpfl: – The Atlanta defense has been strong against the run this season, but they continue to struggle with the pass. They’re ranked 30th in DOVA against the pass this season. Olave has the 2nd-most air yards in the NFL, and he’s averaging 2.6 deep targets per game, which is the most in the NFL. He’s also averaging 9.4 targets per game and has a 26% target share. With out, Olave should continue to see a large volume of targets in a fantastic matchup.

eys819: – The Colts have been torched by outside WRs all season long. They’ve allowed 43.8% of targets to outside WRs, compared to 29.5% to the slot and the remaining 28.7% to backfields and in-line tight ends. Evans runs 71% of his routes from the outside. His 22.8% target share, 39.7% air yard share, and 12 end zone targets all lead Bucs pass catchers. He has racked up double-digit targets and a touchdown in each of the last 2 games.

Bobby Gomes: – Sean McVay said that Williams would play this week. Williams is coming in around 10% pOWN% and will get a Cardinals run defense that has allowed over 132 yards per game on the ground this season. In the 6 games he has played this season, Williams has proven to be the type of player with upside of 20+ touches and 30+ fantasy points.

What is your preferred tournament format (e.g. large-field, single-entry) to play this week? How do you plan to beat that field of opponents? What tactic or strategy will set you apart?

Notorious: I always gravitate to single-entry and small-field tournaments. My plan of action to beat the field this week is to be overweight on and his pass catchers. In particular, and . The Eagles have a very good offense, and they give up a lot of fantasy points to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends.

squirrelpatrol: Large field – Out of 10 games, the slate sets up very neatly into 4 games I have no interest in at all outside of the defenses, 2 games (NO/ATL and KC/LV) where I may have interest in one-offs, and 4 games (JAX/HOU, TB/IND, LAR/ARI, and BUF/PHI) where I think full game stacks are in play. For both single-entry and larger-field, my plan will be to use game stacks from the games I’m interested in and avoid the ones I’m not interested in.

Krayton: I will be playing single-entry and 3-5 entry max tournaments, and the two games I will be overweight on are HOU/JAX and BUF/PHI. I like taking an overweight stance on those two games, as they both have an opportunity to exceed their already high total. Some of the plays I like at lower pOWN% include , , , and . The Eagles are giving up a ton of TDs and receptions to receivers, so I like getting to some of the lower-owned guys that are more boom/bust type of plays, knowing they are in a great matchup.

ebeimfohr: I am almost always a single entry / smaller field player, but this week sets up pretty nicely for my preferred plays in larger field, MME style tournaments. My favorite game/stack is the Falcons/Saints, which is both more contrarian and has several different options on each side that I would like to mix through in my stacks.

Stevietpfl: I talked about this on the Morning Grind. I want to be overweight on the games I like and just avoid the games I think are low scoring with lower ceilings. In my 20-entry-max build, I’m going to have the tightest player pool I’ve had all season. In my single-entry and 3-entry-max contests, I’m going to focus on game stacks in those games I want to be overweight on. I think we have 6 strong games and 4 games with terrible pace and potentially bad game scripts.

eys819: In large-field tournaments, I will target my favorite game stacks. TB/IND, HOU/JAX and BUF/PHI are the 3 games where I want the most exposure. I will stack all 3 of those games multiple ways, including exposure to all 6 quarterbacks in my portfolio of lineups. I will also make sure to include secondary correlations to get exposure to more than one of these games in most of my lineups.

Bobby Gomes: My preferred format is large-field MME, so I can have exposure to all of the “good” plays throughout hundreds of lineups. I think full game stacking the HOU/JAX and BUF/PHI games could bring massive upside. Every offensive position in these two games has GPP-winning upside. Using pieces from these two games can crank up the variance if they play how the oddsmakers have the lines set. I will be overweight on both games, starting with all four QBs and attaching their weapons differently.

What is your hot take of the slate?

Notorious: and combine for 60 fantasy points.

squirrelpatrol: pulls down 12 receptions, his most in any game since 2018.

Krayton: scores 2 TDs while going for 145 total yards.

ebeimfohr: scores 30 fantasy points + ATL/NO has 55+ points.

Stevietpfl: rushes for 200+ yards.

eys819: goes for 150+ receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. The total points in the game flies over the 44.5 total by at least 10 points.

“Bobby Gomes: has 150 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns.”

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