Mitch Keller Stats & Scouting Report — College Baseball, Mlb Draft, Prospects

TRACK RECORD: Keller is the latest pitcher to top the Pirates' system, joining the likes of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow. Keller has flashed the pure stuff to be a top-of-therotation starter, though the Pirates haven't gotten those results consistently from the previous group. Keller's chances might be better. He will work with a new big league pitching coach and likely a more updated organizational pitching philosophy, which has held Pirates pitching prospects back in recent years. Keller made his big league debut in 2019 and has already started to abandon the Pirates' penchant for heavy fastball usage. He ran up a 7.13 ERA over 48 innings in his debut, but he put a late emphasis on his slider and curveball and saw an uptick in strikeouts.

SCOUTING REPORT: Velocity has been Keller's calling card since hitting 94 mph in the Rookielevel Gulf Coast League out of high school. He has since increased that velocity to sit 94-96 with sink down in the zone and has touched 99. He improved the control and command of his fastball after a mechanical adjustment in 2015 but has seen his control regress the last two seasons. His curveball has long looked like a plus pitch, with sharp 12-to-6 movement that leads to strikeouts and grounders. He added a slider last year, which is quickly looking like a plus offering with a 26.8 percent swinging strike rate. It was his second most-used pitch in the majors and was used more than his curveball in all but three starts at the end of the season. The slider was developed because of issues with Keller's changeup, which flashes average with fade but has largely been inconsistent and ineffective. He has big stuff and throws strikes, but he often gets too much of the plate and struggles with sequencing.

THE FUTURE: The Pirates plan for Keller to be a critical part of their rotation, whether their plan is to win now or rebuild. If his slider is as good as it appeared in 2019, then a high strikeout rate should remain. If he can maintain the strikeout and walk rates and fine-tune his command, he should provide the Pirates with a mid- or front-of-therotation starter. He will open 2020 in the majors.