Roboscout - July 2, 2023 — College Baseball, Mlb Draft, Prospects

3 Yorfran Medina, LAD

4 Rayner Arias, SFG

5 Eduardo Quintero, LAD

6 Kelvin Hidalgo, COL

7 Julio Zayas, NYM

8 Roni Cabrera, KCR

9 Robert Calaz, COL

Honorable Mentions: Welbyn Francisca, CLE; Abraham Nunez, CHW, Ismael Javier, SDP; Jose Monzon, TBR Angel Guzman, SFG; Elias Medina, LAD; Daniel Lopez, KCR; Jose Pirela, CLE

You may remember Roni Cabrera from last week’s article when you heard the details of the Aroldis Chapman trade. GM Picollo cited Cabrera’s underlying batted ball data as impressive and RoboScout agrees.

Three toolsy 17 year olds have entered the top 20 and have caught my attention: Elias Medina (LAD), Daniel Lopez (KCR), and Jose Pirela (CLE).

Medina is a shortstop with power and speed and has demonstrated that on the scoresheet with 4 home runs and 10 stolen bases (2 caught) over 78 plate appearances. Lopez is an athletic outfielder with a projectable frame and has a 182 wRC+ with a home run and three stolen bases. Pirela is another athletic centerfielder with a projectable frame, plus speed, and the Guardian hit tool development machine behind him. Although he has only one stolen base (with 3 caught stealings), he has the highest wRC+ of the trio at 194 wRC+.

DSL Hitters

Complex League (Arizona and Florida)

The top hitters in the Complex Leagues so far (minimum 20 plate appearances) according to RoboScout are:

1 Josue Briceno, DET

2 Marco Vargas, MIA

3 Luis Baez, HOU

4 Aneudis Mordan, BAL

5 Hans Montero, NYY

6 Rolphy Cruz, BAL

7 Ricardo Cabrera, CIN

8 Luis Torres, LAA

9 Cristofer Torin, ARI

10 Johanfran Garcia, BOS

Honorable Mentions: John Cruz, NYY; Yordany De Los Santos, PIT; Rafael Ramirez, CLE; Daniel Pena, MIN; Jhonny Severino, MIL; Alberto Barriga, ARI

It’s been a catcher renaissance recently in the minor leagues, and the Complex Leagues are no different with three of the top ten hitters being catchers, including the Josue Briceno in the top spot.

Venezuela has become a catcher hotbed (Diego Cartaya, Francisco Alvarez, Ethan Salas, Salvador Perez, etc.) and Briceno was signed as another slugger in that lineage. So far in 2023, though, it seems like the Tigers don’t expect him to stick behind the plate, perhaps because, despite his strong arm, he’s only thrown out 15% of would-be base stealers in the FCL. He’s played 7 games behind the plate, 3 games at first base, and 6 games at DH but it may not matter because his calling card is the bat. With plus grades on his contact rate, barrel rate, and exit velocities (at good launch angles), Briceno has a .258 ISO, 187 wRC+ and 3 home runs in 79 plate appearances.

Johanfran Garcia and Aneudis Mordan are the two other catchers in the top ten and both have offensive-forward profiles. Whereas Garcia (brother of Jhostnyxon, an outfielder in the Red Sox organization) is a power-over-hit profile, Mordan adds an advanced feel for hitting with incredible contact rates and swing decisions to his ultra-potent quality of contact.

Sebastian Walcott, despite not meeting the minimum 20 plate appearances, is arguably the hottest hitter (and name) in the Complex League and would already be in the top 10 had he qualified. Does he have a weakness? It’s hard to find one but it is noteworthy that he has no walks yet. Then again, why walk when you are absolutely crushing it?

Complex League Hitters

The top pitchers (minimum 5 innings) in the Complex League per RoboScout are:

1 Yimi Presinal, KCR

2 Santiago Suarez, TBR

3 Jackson Humphries, CLE

4 Reynaldo Yean, LAD

5 Jun-Seok Shim, PIT

6 Zack Showalter, BAL

7 Adam Serwinowski, CIN

8 Michael Kennedy, PIT

9 Wilson Esterlin, NYM

10 Ivan Oviedo, TEX

Honorable Mentions: Jesus Rivero, MIL; Yordanny Monegro, BOS; Cesar Lares, MIN; Antwone Kelly, PIT

Yimi Presinal is leading the Complex League RoboScout rankings by far – all the more impressive because RoboScout thinks he’s a reliever and conservatively attenuates his score as a result. If RoboScout knew that Presinal was really a Starting Pitcher “follower” who throws multi-inning stints, he would have even more of a lead over the next batch of pitchers in the tier below. The 18 year old right hander throws a mid- 90s four seam fastball from a low 5-foot-4-inch release height, but does not get much ride or flatness from it – and, as a result, not that many whiffs. His slider is in the 97^th percentile for velocity and 95^th percentile for whiff rate amongst all sliders thrown in rookie leagues (DSL and CPX). The complex league hitters are so helpless against the slider that despite the fact he throws it in the zone less than one third of the time, he still gets over 50% swings (and 50% CSW%). He has a firm change-up which he will need to actualize if he is to become a member of a major league rotation. I am curious to see how his arsenal will play against higher level hitting.

Zack Showalter has now brought his low slot/super flat 93-95 mph fastball and 14” horizontal sweeper in Delmarva, and the results look quite good so far. If teenage pitchers fit your roster risk profile, he’s a name that should be on the shortlist.

After mentioning him on the Fantasy Podcast this week, reliever Reynaldo Yean got promoted to Rancho where California League hitters will have to deal with his nasty triple digit heat and upper 80s slider. Good luck!

Complex League Pitchers

Low-A:

The top hitters in Low-A per RoboScout of the last 40 days are:

1 Samuel Basallo, BAL

2 Moises Ballesteros, CHC

3 Michael Arroyo, SEA

4 Nelson Rada. LAA

5 Ethan Salas, SDP

6 Cole Young, SEA

7 Hector Rodriguez, CIN

8 Luis Lara, MIL

9 Justin Crawford, PHI

10 Luke Adams, MIL

Notables also in the Top 25: Jacob Reimer, NYM; Shalin Polanco, PIT; Christopher Familia, NYY; William Bergolla, PHI; Samuel Zavala, SDP; Josue De Paula; LAD; Bryan Rincon, PHI 

For the full season and over the last 40 days, Samuel Basallo is at the top of the Low-A charts. You might also remember that in the very first RoboScout article on April 23^rd, he was also in the top 5 then. Firstly, it shows how robust RoboScout is with even tiny sample sizes, but, less self-servingly, also how consistent the 18 year old Oriole backstop has been all season. With nearly 300 plate appearances now accrued, Basallo is showing the potential for above average hitting production and 20 to 25 home run power to complement his cannon for an arm. Two months ago, I was tentatively declaring him a potential top 100 prospect but it is becoming pretty clear that he is probably already a top 100 fantasy prospect now, even though he is a teenage catcher who still hasn’t reached High-A.

Low-A Pitchers

The top starting pitchers in Low-A (minimum 20 innings) per RoboScout are:

1 Jacob Misiorowski, MIL

2 David Sandlin, KCR

3 Robby Snelling, SDP

4 Brody McCullough, CHC

5 Zebby Matthews, MIN

6 Blake Adams, COL

7 Hayden Birdsong, SFG

8 Aidan Curry, TEX

9 Nolan DeVos, HOU

10 Michael Arias, CHC

Honorable Mentions: Payton Martin, LAD; Jose Fleury, HOU; Jose Corniell, TEX

Michael Arias was promoted to South Bend after showing his nasty arsenal at Myrtle Beach. With a four-seamer at 95-98 mph from a 5-foot release height and 14” IVB with over 12” of horizontal run, the specs compare quite closely with Luis Castillo’s fastball. As you can imagine, that would be enough to devastate Low-A batting orders, but Arias also mixes in a slider and change-up – but they need more refinement and more reps. Right now he throws over 70% fastballs which works against Low-A hitters, but if he is to succeed at High-A and above, he will need to bring down his walk rate and develop those secondaries. Right now, the arm angle leads to extremely uncomfortable at bats for hitters and with the fast arm speed, he has a good foundation from which he can take a huge step forward.

Low-A Pitchers

High-A:

The top hitters in High-A in the last 40 days, per RoboScout, are:

1 Emmanuel Rodriguez, MIN

2 Kala’i Rosario, MIN

3 Roman Anthony, BOS

4 Adael Amador, COL

5 Abimelec Ortiz, TEX

6 James Triantos, CHC

7 Blaze Jordan, BOS

8 Jackson Holliday, BAL

9 Jackson Merrill, SDP

10 Yanquel Fernandez, COL

Honorable Mentions: Tanner Schobel, ATL; Ryan Clifford, HOU; Kevin Alcantara, CHC; Jace Jung, DET; Jakob Marsee, SDP

In 2021, Abimelec Ortiz led the Dominican Summer League in home runs with 11 (while Junior Caminero was tied for second with 9). The reason why Ortiz didn’t get much buzz as a result, was because he was 19 years old at the time. In full season Single-A last year, he also hit 11 home runs – but over twice as many plate appearances – and with a disappointing 92 wRC+, validating the hesitation we had for him. In 2023, he has put together a 207 wRC+ over 117 plate appearances in High-A, again with 11 home runs. He’s always shown excellent exit velocities but paired them with contact rates that were lower than average. This year though, he has pulled his contact rate up to league average while still showing the same plus exit velocities and barrel rates. Although still projecting to be a below-average bat (albeit with 20 home run power), Ortiz has been exceedingly hot this past week, knocking four of his home runs (and a slash line of .455/.556/1.045). He is low on the defensive spectrum (1B/LF) and not particularly good at either position. He’s a watchlist name for me for now and not the typical profile that excites me in dynasty but a viable name in deeper leagues.

High-A Hitters

The top starting pitchers in High-A (minimum 20 innings) per RoboScout are:

1 Cade Horton, CHC

2 Chase Hampton, NYY

3 Noah Cameron, KCR

4 Isaac Coffey, BOS

5 Chase Petty, CIN

6 Marco Raya, MIN

7 Wilkelman Guerrero, BOS

8 Tink Hence, STL

9 Ronan Kopp, LAD

10 Josh Stephan, TEX

Honorable Mentions: Carson Ragsdale, SFG; Dylan Ray, ARI; Yu-Min Lin, ARI; Alex Pham, BAL

The news on Thursday was that Tink Hence was being promoted to Double-A. Not bad for a 20 year old.

A name that we mentioned on the latest Fantasy Podcast was Oriole right hander, Alex Pham, who just got the call to Double-A Bowie. Throwing a 92-93 mph four seamer nearly 45% of the time, he gets good ride from it (above 20” of IVB) but because of the high release point, it’s not particularly flat and subsequently only generates average whiffs. His slider (84-86 mph) generates a plus whiff rate and grades well by pitch value with his combination of CSW% and weak contact. His curveball is currently below average but his change-up shows flashes of being a useful part of his arsenal with good velocity and vertical separation from the fastball, but which he only throws around 7% of the time. Considering that he was a 19^th round pick (signing for $25K), the Orioles have to be pleased that Pham is showing progress in his quest to be a back-of-the-rotation starter.

High-A Pitchers

Double-A: 

The top hitters in Double-A in the last 40 days, per RoboScout are:

1 Coby Mayo, BAL

2 Colt Keith, DET

3 Austin Shenton, TBR

4 Junior Caminero, TBR

5 Orelvis Martinez, TOR

6 Jackson Chourio, MIL

7 James Wood, WSN

8 Tyler Black, MIL

9 Rece Hinds, CIN

10 Tirso Ornelas, SDP

Honorable Mentions: Evan Carter, TEX; Yanquiel Fernandez, COL; Johan Rojas, PHI; Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC; Leo Jimenez, TOR; Chase Meidroth, BOS; Owen Caissie, CHC 

The biggest gainers this week were Junior Caminero who has hit safely in his last 8 games, putting up a .421/.542/.684 line during that span with a home run, and Rece Hinds, who put up a .538/.600/923 over 15 plate appearances. Unfortunately, after knocking four extra base hits (and stealing two bases), Hinds went on the IL with a hamstring strain.

Tirso Ornelas has found his name on RoboScout’s lists off and on throughout his career but has never really sustained enough of a performance to force his way onto prospect lists or dynasty rosters. This year, though – and especially this past month – he is beginning to look like he could make it as a 4^th outfielder. With his season-long combination of above-average-to-plus contact rates and exit velocities, he has begun to put the ball over the fence in the last month: in his first 150 plate appearances of 2023, he only had 2 home runs; in his last 135 Double-A plate appearances, he has knocked 7 home runs, earning a promotion to Triple-A as a result.

Double-A Hitters

The top starting pitchers in Double-A (minimum 20 innings) per RoboScout are:

1 Connor Phillips, CIN

2 Kyle Hurt, LAD

3 Emmet Sheehan, LAD

4 Eury Perez, MIA

5 Coleman Crow, NYM

6 Landen Roupp, SFG

7 Jacob Lopez, TBR

8 Ben Brown, CHC

9 Bryan Woo, SEA

10 Prelander Berroa, SEA

Honorable Mentions: Christian Scott, NYM (19.2 innings); Richard Fitts, NYY; Justin Jarvis, MIL; Will Warren, NYY

In case you missed it in this week’s fantasy podcast, we were waxing poetic about Christian Scott. The 2021 draftee has already pitched at both Single-A levels and has started to put up a solid Double-A performance. In just under 20 innings, he has a 28.4% K-BB%, a 0.61 WHIP, and a 1.37 ERA (2.97 xFIP). Although he doesn’t have above-average carry on his two fastballs, his above-average extension results in the 94/95 mph velocity playing up and getting plus whiffs and chases. His slider sits 84-85 mph and is currently average. His change-up came into the season as a below average offering but so far he has been successful with it, and it pairs very well with the heaters, as it’s 10 mph slower and has 10” of vertical separation. It only gets average whiffs but hitters thus far have had a hard time squaring it up, only generating weak contact against it. If he can continue his early success against Double-A hitting, he will easily push his way into the top 250.

Double-A Pitchers

Triple-A:

The top hitters in Triple-A in the last 40 days, per RoboScout are:

1 Luis Matos, SFG

2 Elly De La Cruz, CIN

3 Jonathan Aranda, TBR

4 Alex Jackson, MIL

5 Ivan Herrera, STL

6 Jordan Walker, STL

7 Joey Ortiz, BAL

8 Jared Young, CHC

9 Davis Schneider, TOR

10 Miguel Andujar, PIT

Honorable Mentions: Bo Naylor, CLE; Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN

Bobby Dalbec, BOS; Matt Wallner; Jair Camargo, MIN; Jahmai Jones, LAD; Jorge Barrosa, ARI

It was nice to see the Cubs call up Jared Young. The first baseman has 9 home runs over his last 125 plate appearances and a 181 wRC+. A well deserved promotion.

Triple-A Hitters

The top starting pitchers in Triple-A (minimum 20 innings) per RoboScout are:

1 Andrew Abbott, CIN

2 Gavin Williams, CLE

3 Kyle Harrison, SFG

4 Grayson Rodriguez, BAL

5 Ben Brown, CHC

6 Bowden Francis, TOR

7 Jordan Balazovic, MIN

8 Brandon Pfaadt, ARI

9 Matthew Liberatore, STL

10 Louie Varland, MIN

Based on the fact that they are the only pitchers on the above list who have not yet appeared in the major leagues this year, I would say that Kyle Harrison and Ben Brown have a high likelihood of debuting in the majors this season. The “problem” is that, if you look at pitchers since 2007 who have performed similarly to them (to get “comparables” for how they might be expected to perform over their career), because of the double digit walk rates that they both have, the list of closest performance profiles are relievers or starting pitchers who have had inconsistent careers.

For Kyle Harrison, his age 21 performance so far in 2023 maps closest to the following age 21 (or age 22) Triple-A seasons to him:

The good news is that any of Jose LeClerc, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel would be a fantastic outcome for Harrison as a high leverage reliever. Also, you will note that essentially the entire list is populated by major leaguers and pitchers who were a year older in Triple-A than Harrison is now. Was the above a useful exercise? Perhaps not. But I think I would conclude the following: (1) Kyle Harrison will be a major leaguer. (2) Because of his current command, there is a higher probability than we would like that he will be a reliever. (3) He is exceedingly young so he could essentially repeat an entire season in Triple-A and still be following the development path that some dominant Closers took through the upper levels of the minors. In other words, he is further ahead than most of these names. But, by the same token, I would not have high expectations for excellent MLB performance in 2023.

Happy bidding!

Triple-A Pitchers