Roboscout’s Prospect Names to Know, July 16, 2023 — College Baseball, Mlb Draft, Prospects

The all-star festivities are over and regular season baseball is back. Even though a lot of the minor leagues shut down for a few days (except for the DSL, which rolled on), there were still a few games and I have a few names to talk about before FAB runs today.

I can’t wait for the new draftees to get assigned to the lower levels and get a few professional plate appearances in (or innings). We have great evaluations on these players who were drafted, but seeing how they perform with wooden bats against professional pitching is where the rubber meets the road. I don’t mean to be so hitter-focused in these post-draft anecdotes, but it is more common that the drafted pitchers are shut down for the year and/or get a few casual or less-stressful innings. Last year, Dalton Rushing’s outstanding debut in the minor leagues after being drafted caused us all to take notice.

Anyway, all of that is to come in the next few weeks. Right now, let’s take a look at some FAB names for you to grab in your dynasty leagues this week.

Dominican Summer League

The recent discourse has been that there is a wealth of catching prospects in the minor leagues the last couple years – and I can’t count the number of times that someone has caught RoboScout’s eye and I looked them up to see that they are a catcher. I mentioned Jhocsuanth Vargas (TEX) a couple weeks ago because of his incredible exit velocity data—made even more impressive by the fact that he is only in his age-16 season—and he hit his second dinger of the campaign.

There are a couple more catchers in the top 15 that I haven’t mentioned yet this year: Julio Zayas (NYM) and Eduardo Tait (PHI). Zayas has quietly put up a solid campaign, with contact, exit velocities, barrel rates and chase rates that are better than average for the level. Although he doesn’t walk much (5.3% BB%), he doesn’t strike out either (9.7% K%) and has five home runs in 113 plate appearances—which roughly translates to 25-plus home run power in the major leagues. 

As impressive as Zaya’s numbers are, Tait is likely the better target for fantasy. Firstly, he is a year younger and has a 158 wRC+, the highest mark for any 16-year-old in the DSL (ahead of second-place Pablo Guerrero (TEX) who has a 143 wRC+). When the Panamanian was signed by the Phillies for only $90,000, he was one of the youngest in the signing class, and was noted as an offensive-focused catcher. The fact that he is so young and has a strikeout rate lower than 20% portends future success and makes him a watch list name for those of you who can weather the volatility of rostering a 16-year-old catcher.

The final name I want to talk about is outfielder Gian Zapata (ARI No. 29 prospect). With a projectable 6-foot-4 frame, the signing notes on Zapata were that he had gap power, but could eventually gain strength. Well, this year, he’s already rendered that scouting report obsolete, as he has nine home runs in fewer than 90 plate appearances (he hit three home runs on Saturday … but that’s not captured in this week’s statistics). Even before the three-home run outburst, his power production was already translating to approximately 30-plus home run power—and now it’s off the charts. Before you run to your waiver wire to grab him, I would be remiss if I didn’t provide the requisite caveats: Zapata has a 37% strikeout rate and a 96 wRC+ (below-average). Until he gets that strikeout rate below 30% (really, 25%), he should be avoided—as it is exceedingly rare for a DSL prospect to have a strikeout rate that high—though note that Lazaro Montes (SEA No. 15 prospect) had a 33% rate last year in the DSL (and, in 2010, Jorge Alfaro had a 26% strikeout rate).

Complex Leagues

After carving up the FCL, Luis Baez (HOU) was promoted to Low-A Fayetteville. Look for his double-plus power to play in Low-A, even despite the fact that Fayetteville plays as a pitcher’s park.

Speaking of catchers, a few weeks ago I mentioned Josue Briceno (DET), Aneudis Mordan (BAL) and Johanfran Garcia (BOS)—and they remain in the top 15.

Oh, and Sebastian Walcott (TEX No. 14 prospect) is still head and shoulders above the rest of the class.

Although not truly a “complex league” pitcher, Eric Silva (SFG No. 12 prospect) was reassigned there after struggling, especially with his command, at High-A Eugene all season. A fourth-round draft pick in 2020 (signed overslot for just under $1.5M), Silva has a four- (potentially five-) pitch mix that he hurls from a low slot. As a result, his 93-94 mph fastball plays flatter, his horizontal movement on his curveball is greater than a foot, and his slider and changeup also have stuff metrics that are average or better. If he was sent to the ACL to gain his confidence back, he couldn’t do much better than 13 strikeouts over 5.1 innings with zero walks. I don’t expect him to stay at the complex for long. 

As you can see, there hasn’t been much movement in the complex leagues recently.

Low-A

I was working on the Dynasty 600 update and you should expect to see Gabriel Gonzalez (SEA No. 4 prospect) improve his ranking from the preseason. For 2023, he has a 147 wRC+ and has been remarkably consistent all season. My projections have him as an above-average bat with 20-to-25 home run power (though better in batting average leagues than in OBP leagues).

On the mound, I want to talk about two pitchers who have put up some compelling numbers since June 2.

The first name is Yoniel Curet (TBR), who on the year doesn’t look too compelling on the heels of his 17% walk rate. But in his 34 innings since June 2, he has cut that to a more palatable 13%. Although that suggests he is a bullpen arm, he probably would be anyway—as he really only throws two pitches … but the pair of pitches are plus to double-plus. His four seamer sits 97-99 mph (18” IVB/10” horizontal) and his slider is firm at 86-88 mph.

Another name that I haven’t mentioned this year but whose recent performance is starting to match his preseason expectations is Jose Fleury (HOU No. 24 prospect). The righthander was identified as someone to watch stateside this year,  with his four-pitch mix being ripe for the Astros to develop. Although his four-seam fastball had more than than 20” IVB, it only sits 91-92 mph and is not flat at all (from his 6-foot vertical release slot). The slider and curveball are average—but the real calling card is the changeup, which has haunted Low-A hitters. We should always be cautious of Low-A pitching success being courtesy of a cambio-forward profile and this is the case here. Still, a starter’s mix, the Astros pitching development and a clean and athletic operation all add up to dynasty intrigue.

I hope you got in on Payton Martin (LAD No. 28 prospect) in your leagues. In his last 19 innings, he has a 33.4% K-BB% (courtesy of his sharp command and 17.7% swinging strike rate). But even when hitters do manage to make contact, two-thirds of the time they hit it into the ground. Heck, just read this. 

High-A

After suffering a preseason injury, Chase DeLauter (CLE No. 8 prospect) had a brief complex league stint before being assigned to High-A Lake County at the end of June. So far (in only 37 plate appearances), he has put up a .486/.514/.800 slash line with a homer and two stolen bases (setting aside any questions we may have about his lower body recovery). As he accrues more reps, expect him to climb the High-A rankings.

Colson Montgomery also had a recent return from injury (CWS No. 1 prospect), and he’s managed a 303 wRC+ in his first 26 plate appearances in High-A in 2023. It’s great to see him back.

Another name to mention is the Northwest League’s OBP leader, outfielder Alan Roden (TOR). The third-round draft pick of the Blue Jays in 2022 was drafted as a contact-forward on-base profile with below-average power. That has carried over into his professional career, as he has put together a sub-5% swinging strike rate (and sub 10% strikeout rate) with a 149 wRC+. Although he has not developed any power and he is “merely” age-appropriate, Roden has had a hot month with a 167 wRC+, two home runs, and 11 stolen bases (being caught only once) since the calendar flipped to June. He doesn’t have the most fantasy friendly profile, but his above-average outfield defense and hit tool should get him to the majors, giving him a high floor (though low ceiling).

On the pitching side of things, Juan Nunez (BAL No. 29 prospect), who was promoted to High-A at the end of June, hasn’t yet got his footing (with a 1.80 WHIP and 9.77 FIP) but based on how dominant he was in his final month in Low-A (and his excellent modern arsenal), I expect that to turn around soon. Acquired from the Twins in the Jorge Lopez trade that also netted the Orioles Cade Povich (BAL No. 10 prospect) and Yennier Cano, judging by the stuff he’s flashing this season, there’s a high chance that by the end of the season, Nunez won’t be viewed as just a throw-in. If you were designing a four-seam fastball in a lab, you would come pretty close to his specs: 95-96 mph with a super flat VAA (from his low 5-foot-6 release). His curveball sits in the low 80s with 15 inches of horizontal sweep and his slider is 85-87 mph with 12 inches of horizontal movement itself. Before the season, his changeup was below-average but this year, it’s showing some significant promise with 13 inches of vertical separation (though it’s only 6 mph slower than his four-seam) but he kills spin and gets a 41% CSW (which is in the 97th percentile amongst changeups at Low-A thrown at least 40 times). In his three appearances in Delmarva in June before getting promoted, he had 20 strikeouts (three walks) in 13 innings. Just like with Fleury above, I’m betting on the stuff, the delivery and the organization.

Another pitcher who has come on strong recently is 22-year-old righthander Yilber Diaz (ARI No. 27 prospect), who in his last six starts has a 1.03 WHIP, a 3.19 ERA and a 34% strikeout rate with an 8% walk rate. His fastball is flat at 96-97 mph from a low release height. His curve is a little loopy, so he might do better to focus on his new slider, which sits in the mid 80s with cutter-type action. Not bad for a $10,000 signing.

Double-A

Over the last six weeks, Johnathan Rodriguez (CLE) has put up numbers befitting his previous ranking as the Guardians No. 29 prospect in 2019. It’s been a slow burn for the switch-hitter, whose plus to double-plus exit velocities last year manifested into 26 home runs, but as you would expect for a slugger who is not highly regarded, his contact rate was below-average. This year—for the entire season, although the strikeout rate is hovering at 27%, his contact rate is league average. Even with a 133 wRC+ for 2023, in his last 145 plate appearances, he’s put up a 180 wRC+ with nine home runs. He’s showing an above-average bat with 20-to-25 home run power. He’s a very underrated outfield prospect at this point, and is a poster child for prospect fatigue.

After his last 30 innings with a 30% K-BB% (with a 0.75 WHIP and 1.25 ERA), Mason Black (SFG No. 9 prospect) earned a promotion to Triple-A.

Another interesting arm is right hander Peter Van Loon (BAL) who throws a four-pitch mix (though predominantly a 94-96 mph FF and 84-87 mph SL) and has a K-BB% of 24% since June 1. The 16th-round pick from the 2021 draft (signed for $75K) has a plus slider to go along with his high-ride 95-97 mph four-seam fastball. He’s also dabbled with a curveball, cutter and changeup.

Triple-A

The most interesting name to me—both in redraft and dynasty leagues—on the back of his last 150 plate appearances is Xavier Edwards (MIA No. 8 prospect). Equally playing the keystone and center field, if Dane Myers stumbles, I fully expect to see Edwards called up … at least until Jazz Chisholm returns. With a miniscule 3% strikeout rate over the last six weeks, with 14 stolen bases (and zero caught steals), Edwards has put up a .970 OPS, a .410 average and three home runs, which translates to a .280/.340 batting average/on-base percentage with 10-12 home runs and 25 stolen bases. As someone in need of stolen bases in my redraft leagues, he definitely has my attention.

The final (eclectic) name I want to discuss is 25-year-old Evan McKendry (TBR). Over his last 35 innings, he has a 29% strikeout rate and a 4% walk rate courtesy of his unique arm slot (with above-average extension). His unique combination of pitch shapes (he has three pitches that grade as above-average) is the recipe that Tampa Bay seems to seek. In his last seven starts, he’s faced a minimum of 18 batters and could serve as an alternative to Yonny Chirinos (in a similar vein to Jalen Beeks and Ryan Yarbrough in seasons past for the Rays). Unfortunately, he’s not on the 40-man roster right now—but if there are some roster shake ups at the trade deadline, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make some MLB appearances this season.

Hope this helps. Happy bidding!