Each Week in This Article, I Will Rank Each of My Selections in Order of Confidence and Provide Reasoning on All of My Top Picks.

Nfl Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 4

The Arizona Cardinals Play Hard, Which Gives Them a Fighting Chance to Be Competitive Against Any Opponent on Their Schedule. However, We Need to Be Careful Not to over-Romanticize Their Win Against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 Considering That the Cowboys Were Missing Three Starting Offensive Linemen and One of Their Best Defensive Players. Arizona Also Had the Benefit of Playing That Contest on Their Home Field. in Week 4, the Cardinals Will Have to Travel to the Bay to Face a San Francisco 49Ers Team That Has Three Extra Days of Rest and Preparation Going into This Matchup. Through Three Weeks, San Francisco Ranks 2Nd in Offensive Epa / Play and 4Th in Defensive Epa / Play. Arizona Ranks 10Th in Offensive Epa / Play and 22Nd in Defensive Epa / Play. Since the Beginning of 2018, Home Favorites of at Least 14 Points Are 37-4 Straight up and Have Won on Average by 15.7 Points. Trust and Company to Get the Job Done Here.

49Ers (Vs. Cardinals)

The Arizona Cardinals Play Hard, Which Gives Them a Fighting Chance to Be Competitive Against Any Opponent on Their Schedule. However, We Need to Be Careful Not to over-Romanticize Their Win Against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 Considering That the Cowboys Were Missing Three Starting Offensive Linemen and One of Their Best Defensive Players. Arizona Also Had the Benefit of Playing That Contest on Their Home Field. in Week 4, the Cardinals Will Have to Travel to the Bay to Face a San Francisco 49Ers Team That Has Three Extra Days of Rest and Preparation Going into This Matchup. Through Three Weeks, San Francisco Ranks 2Nd in Offensive Epa / Play and 4Th in Defensive Epa / Play. Arizona Ranks 10Th in Offensive Epa / Play and 22Nd in Defensive Epa / Play. Since the Beginning of 2018, Home Favorites of at Least 14 Points Are 37-4 Straight up and Have Won on Average by 15.7 Points. Trust and Company to Get the Job Done Here.

Eagles (Vs. Commanders)

The Philadelphia Eagles Catch a Pair of Red Flags in This Matchup, with the Game Being an Intra-Division Affair and Philadelphia Having a Net Rest Disadvantage Going into Sunday. However, It Is Abundantly Clear That the Eagles Are More Talented Than the Washington Commanders When Healthy. in Week 2, Philadelphia Was Missing a Number of Key Defensive Contributors, but Still Managed a Six-Point Victory over the Minnesota Vikings. in Week 3, the Eagles Returned Most of Their Injured Defensive Stars, Which Led to a Comfortable 25-11 Win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. the Commanders Rank 28Th in Offensive Epa / Play and 19Th in Defensive Epa / Play, While the Eagles Rank in the Top-11 in Both of Those Metrics. Assuming We Don’t Get Any Surprises on the Final Injury Report, Philadelphia Is the Smart Play Here. Across the Last Five Seasons, Home Favorites of Between 7-10 Points Are 144-36-1 Straight Up, Good for an 80.0% Win Rate.

In Week 1, the Kansas City Chiefs’ Defense Ranked 26Th out of 32 Teams in Pressure Rate (15.5%) Playing Without Chris Jones. Since Jones Has Returned to the Field, the Defense Has Generated a 36.4% Pressure Rate in Week 2 and a 41.2% Pressure Rate in Week 3. When Under Duress, Owns a 36.1% Completion Rate and Has Averaged Only 3.7 Yards per Attempt in 2023 According to Pff. Simply, the New York Jets Defense and Special Teams Would Need to Pull off a Miracle Similar to Their Performance in Week 1 to Deliver an Upset Victory in This Spot. Prime Time Contests Are a Breeding Ground for Surprises, but and a Healthy Kansas City Team Should Take Care of Business Against a New York Team That Is Struggling on Both Sides of the Ball Early This Season.

Cowboys (Vs. Patriots)

Since the Beginning of the 2018 Campaign, Home Favorites of Between 6-10 Points Are 194-60-1 Straight Up, Which Translates to a 76.4% Win Rate. the Dallas Cowboys Were Without Three Starting Offensive Linemen in Week 3, Which Undeniably Hurt Their Ability to Protect. the Arizona Cardinals Took Advantage of Dallas’ Injuries up Front and Generated Their Highest Pressure Rate of the Season to Date. Heading into This Weekend, Everyone Except for Tyron Smith Has Practiced in Some Capacity During the Week. If Dallas Is Able to Get Healthy up Front, They Should Be Able to Defend Their Home Field Here, Though It Is Likely That This Game Is More Competitive Than the Market Is Currently Suggesting.

Chargers (Vs. Raiders)

In an Ideal World, Brandon Staley Would Not Be the Head Coach of the Los Angeles Chargers and the Team’s Defense Would Not Be at Risk of Missing Joey Bosa and Derwin James Jr. This Weekend. However, Both of Those Things Are Reality, and the Offensive Line Could Be Without Two Starters on Sunday as Well. Nevertheless, Los Angeles Is in a Must-Win Position Against an Opponent That Is Far Less Talented and Also Dealing with Injuries. Quarterback Returned to Practice on Thursday but Is Still Reportedly in the League’s Concussion Protocol, Making His Availability on Sunday a Continued Question Mark. Even If He Plays, Garoppolo Will Be Leading an Offense That Ranks 19Th in Epa / Play This Season. Los Angeles Ranks 5Th in Offensive Epa / Play and Has Also Been Slightly Better Than Las Vegas on the Defensive Side of the Ball. There Are Undeniable Risks Every Time the Chargers Are Ranked This Highly in Confidence Pools, but They Have Home Field Advantage in This Contest and Have a Net Rest Advantage Ahead of Sunday’s Action. They Should Be Able to Find a Way to Win, Even If It Is More Stressful Than We Would All Like to See.

Straight up Picks Week 4

By David Miller

• Oct 8, 2026 • 6 min read

Direct Answer • Key Takeaway

Through Three Weeks of Action in 2023, We Are 30-18 (62.5%) in Our Nfl Pick’em Article. Though Certainly Beneath the Standard We Have Established for Ourselves in Recent Seasons, It Is Worth Noting That We Have Gotten off to Slow Starts Each of the Last Two Year's Before Rebounding for Extremely Strong Results in October, November, and December. This Weekend, We Have Only a Handful of Teams Favored by More Than One Score, but We Do Our Best to Parse the Signal from the Noise in Our Rankings Below.

David Miller

Executive Financial & Market Analyst

David Miller brings 15 years of experience in global economics, personal finance strategy, and market dynamics. He specializes in turning complex economic trends into actionable insights for everyday readers.

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